An expert-based approach to production performance analysis of oil and gas facilities considering time-independent Arctic operating conditions

摘要

The availability and throughput of offshore oil and gas plants operating in the Arctic areadversely influenced by the harsh environmental conditions. One of the major challenges inquantifying such effects is lack of adequate life data. The data collected in normal-climateregions cannot effectively reflect the negative effects of harsh Arctic operating conditions onthe reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM) performance of the facilities. Expertopinions, however, can modify such data. In an analogy with proportional hazard models, thispaper develops an expert-based availability model to analyse the performance of the plantsoperating in the Arctic, while accounting for the uncertainties associated with expertjudgements. The presented model takes into account waiting downtimes and those related toextended active repair times, as well as the impacts of operating conditions on components’reliability. The model is illustrated by analysing the availability and throughput of the powergeneration unit of an offshore platform operating in the Western Barents Sea.